The pharmaceutical intermediates market is undergoing a profound shift—from "homogeneous competition" toward "differentiated value-based competition," with high-end, niche segments emerging as the key growth engine. Data indicates that China’s pharmaceutical intermediates market is projected to expand from approximately RMB 350 billion in 2025 to over RMB 600 billion by 2030, maintaining an annual compound growth rate of 8.5%–9%. Notably, the share of high-end intermediates is expected to surge significantly—from 15% to 25%, firmly establishing itself as the primary driver propelling industry expansion.
The specialized segments are showing distinct divergent trends: Traditional antibiotic intermediates, such as the cephalosporin series, are expected to maintain steady growth of 6%-8%, driven by rising demand in primary healthcare markets in developing countries and cost advantages gained from process optimizations. Meanwhile, core products like 7-ACA have seen enzyme-based conversion rates improve to 92%, further boosting industry consolidation among leading players. On the other hand, high-end intermediates—such as peptide-based and fluorinated compounds—are demonstrating explosive growth potential. Peptide intermediates, in particular, are benefiting from global demand for weight-loss drugs like GLP-1 receptor agonists, with their market size already surging by 42% year-on-year as of 2025. Additionally, advancements in solid-phase synthesis technology have slashed the price of kilogram-scale products by 28%, spurring even greater market expansion. Emerging categories like ADC drug intermediates and cell therapy culture media are poised to become key growth drivers over the next five years, propelling the share of biopharmaceutical intermediates to surpass 35% by 2030.
The export structure will also undergo a simultaneous upgrade, shifting from a trade pattern dominated by basic intermediates toward products with higher value-added components. In 2024, intermediates already accounted for 48% of China's exports, and this share is expected to exceed 55% by 2030. Notably, exports of customized, high-end intermediates are projected to grow at a rate significantly faster than the industry average, gradually reversing the current trade deficit in premium products.
II. Breakthroughs in Technological Innovation: Dual-Engine Drive of Green and Smart Solutions
Technological innovation is the core driver behind the value upgrade of the pharmaceutical intermediates industry, with green synthesis and intelligent manufacturing emerging as the primary innovation directions. These advancements are propelling the industry’s transformation from "extensive manufacturing" to "precision-based smart manufacturing."
The adoption rate of green synthesis technologies is set to leap forward, with projections indicating a rise from 40% in 2024 to 65% by 2030. As the cornerstone of eco-friendly processes, biocatalysis technology will expand its application scope to cover 30% of product lines, showcasing distinct advantages in the synthesis of chiral intermediates and complex heterocyclic compounds. For instance, enzymes are now being used to produce key products like (S)-o-chlorophenylglycine, boosting atom economy from 62% in conventional methods to an impressive 91%, while significantly cutting down on waste generation. Meanwhile, the industrial-scale implementation of continuous-flow reactions and microchannel technology has addressed longstanding challenges associated with low efficiency and poor safety in traditional batch processes. Take, for example, a specific intermediate used in diabetes drug production: after adopting this advanced technology, the reaction time was slashed from 8 hours to just 15 minutes, energy consumption dropped by 60%, and impurity levels were tightly controlled below 0.03%. These groundbreaking advancements not only help companies meet stringent environmental regulations but also play a pivotal role in reducing production costs and enhancing product competitiveness.
Digital and intelligent transformation is accelerating its penetration, reshaping industry-wide production and R&D models. The application of artificial intelligence in intermediate compound development is moving from conceptual stages to practical implementation—leveraging molecular design assistance technologies that can cut R&D costs by up to 20%. In scenarios like screening intermediates for antidepressant drugs, AI has already streamlined the process, reducing the number of candidate compounds from 5,000 to just 200, significantly boosting the success rate of drug discovery. Meanwhile, on the production side, smart manufacturing upgrades are delivering remarkable results: deep integration of IoT technology with production systems has boosted reaction efficiency by more than 20%. Additionally, blockchain technology is set to play an increasingly critical role in quality traceability, with its adoption expected to rise sharply—from 15% in 2024 to 45% by 2030—providing end-to-end assurance for robust product quality control.